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Shocks and Turbulence: Globalization and the Occurrence of Civil War

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  • Mark David Nieman

Abstract

Several scholars argue that systemic global trends are pulling individuals not only upward toward the global level, but also downward to the local level; the result is a potential loss of authority for the state (Ferguson and Mansbach 2004; Rosenau 1990). Their theory of “fragmegration” can provide a causal mechanism for why longstanding grievances may erupt into civil war at a particular time. While increased global exposure does provide both states and individual citizens with tremendous benefits, sudden “shocks” of globalization can overwhelm a state's capacity to offset the negative impacts of globalization, thus weakening a state's capacity to deal with rival polities for the allegiance of its citizens. The present study conducts a cross-sectional logistic regression with discrete duration analysis to test the impact of globalization shocks on the onset of civil wars between the years 1970--1999. The results demonstrate that increasingly dramatic changes in the level of global integration are associated with an increased risk of civil war onset.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark David Nieman, 2011. "Shocks and Turbulence: Globalization and the Occurrence of Civil War," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 263-292, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:37:y:2011:i:3:p:263-292
    DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2011.594756
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    1. Hays, Jude, 2009. "Globalization and the New Politics of Embedded Liberalism," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195369328.
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    Cited by:

    1. James M. Lutz, 2017. "Risk Sensitivity and the Sikh Uprising in the Punjab," India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, , vol. 73(3), pages 327-341, September.
    2. Mahdi FAWAZ, 2020. "Ressources naturelles et guerres civiles au Moyen-Orient," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2020-09, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    3. Olga Chyzh, 2014. "Can you trust a dictator: A strategic model of authoritarian regimes’ signing and compliance with international treaties," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(1), pages 3-27, February.
    4. Roberto Ezcurra & Beatriz Manotas, 2017. "Is there a link between globalisation and civil conflict?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(12), pages 2592-2610, December.
    5. Süveyda Karakaya, 2018. "Globalization and contentious politics: A comparative analysis of nonviolent and violent campaigns," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(4), pages 315-335, July.

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