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Jumping into the Fray: Alliances, Power, Institutions, and the Timing of Conflict Expansion

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  • Molly M. Melin
  • Michael T. Koch

Abstract

Our paper examines the question of when conflicts expand and what leads particular states to join more quickly than others. Using factors highlighted in the conflict expansion and joining literatures, we derive hypotheses about how these factors make resolve in the face of credible threats more likely and how this either increases or decreases the time to conflict expansion. We also generate expectations about when specific states are likely to join a conflict. We test our expectations using a dataset of the initial belligerents of militarized disputes and all potential joiner states. The results of our analyses suggest that conflict expansion is more often because of initiators' resolve rather than miscalculation since observable signals of likely expansion, such as alliances and power, decrease the time to expansion. Our findings have important implications for research on alliance reliability, balancing and bandwaggoning, and various proposed causes of the democratic peace.

Suggested Citation

  • Molly M. Melin & Michael T. Koch, 2010. "Jumping into the Fray: Alliances, Power, Institutions, and the Timing of Conflict Expansion," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 1-27, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:36:y:2010:i:1:p:1-27
    DOI: 10.1080/03050620903328696
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    Cited by:

    1. Zachary C. Shirkey, 2020. "Which wars spread? Commitment problems and military intervention," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(2), pages 133-151, March.
    2. Molly M. Melin & Scott Sigmund Gartner & Jacob Bercovitch, 2013. "Fear of rejection: The puzzle of unaccepted mediation offers in international conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(4), pages 354-368, September.
    3. John Tyson Chatagnier, 2015. "Conflict bargaining as a signal to third parties," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 27(2), pages 237-268, April.
    4. Melin, Molly M., 2016. "Business, peace, and world politics: The role of third parties in conflict resolution," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 493-501.
    5. Renato Corbetta, 2015. "Between indifference and coercion: Third-party intervention techniques in ongoing disputes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(1), pages 3-27, February.

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