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In Search of Structure: The Nonlinear Dynamics of Power Transitions

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  • Mark Abdollahian
  • Kyungkook Kang

Abstract

Power Transitions (PT) anticipates interstate conflict or cooperation by examining dynamic changes in the distribution of power across the international system, as well as each nation's (or politically “relevant” nation's) satisfaction with the current international status quo. Using a system of symmetric, coupled nonlinear differential equations, we formalize and test a dynamic PT model to identify to what extent and degree policy makers can maintain stability in rival dyads, such as the US-China case currently. Our formalized dynamic PT model explores some of the structural conditions of how conflict or cooperation affects growth and transition from the PT literature. These formal results are consistent both with theoretical expectations and empirical results. Our results not only suggest specific, strategic policy prescriptions for dyads in hopes of avoiding war, but more importantly highlight the nonlinear and non-monotonic effects of foreign policy actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Abdollahian & Kyungkook Kang, 2008. "In Search of Structure: The Nonlinear Dynamics of Power Transitions," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 333-357, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:34:y:2008:i:4:p:333-357
    DOI: 10.1080/03050620802574887
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    Cited by:

    1. Woosang Kim & Scott Gates, 2015. "Power transition theory and the rise of China," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 219-226, September.
    2. Young‐Wan Goo & Seung‐Nyeon Kim, 2012. "Time-Varying Characteristics Of South Korea-United States And Japan-United States Military Alliances Under Chinese Threat: A Public Good Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 95-106, February.
    3. Goo, Young-Wan & Lee, Seong-Hoon, 2014. "Military Alliances and Reality of Regional Integration: Japan, South Korea, the US vs. China, North Korea," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 29, pages 329-342.

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