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Testing Dynamic Theories of Conflict: Power Cycles, Power Transitions, Foreign Policy Crises and Militarized Interstate Disputes

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  • Lui Hebron
  • Patrick James
  • Michael Rudy

Abstract

Explaining the causes of international strife is one of the most important problems in the social sciences. A wide range of theories have been created to account for conflict, crisis, and war that in some way relate to the dynamics of power. Two of the most prominent are Doran's power cycle and Organski's power transition. Each provides a useful framework within which to examine great power involvement in international conflict, crisis and war. The study unfolds in six sections. The first sets out the paper's agenda. The second section briefly describes modified versions of Doran's power cycle theory and Organski's power transition theory. The third presents hypotheses about the likely effects of the power cycle and power transition on crises and disputes. Fourth, measurements are developed for the crucial ingredients, meaning disputes, crises, critical points, and transitions in relative capabilities for the great powers. The fifth section uses MID and ICB data from 1816 to 1991 to test the hypotheses. Results are mixed for both theories and suggest that further work is needed in terms of the cases selected for application. Sixth, and finally, the findings are reviewed and some general comments concerning the future direction of research on power cycle and power transition theory are offered.

Suggested Citation

  • Lui Hebron & Patrick James & Michael Rudy, 2007. "Testing Dynamic Theories of Conflict: Power Cycles, Power Transitions, Foreign Policy Crises and Militarized Interstate Disputes," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 1-29, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:33:y:2007:i:1:p:1-29
    DOI: 10.1080/03050620601155680
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    Cited by:

    1. Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, 2017. "Dangerous bargains with the devil? Incorporating new approaches in peace science for the study of war," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(1), pages 98-116, January.
    2. James Meernik & Kimi King, 2020. "The Security Consequences of Bearing Witness," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(5), pages 933-957, May.
    3. Christopher K. Butler, 2011. "Superpower Dispute Initiation: An Empirical Model of Strategic Behavior," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 61-90, September.
    4. Susan G. Sample, 2018. "Power, Wealth, and Satisfaction," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(9), pages 1905-1931, October.

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