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Geographic Opportunity and Neomalthusian Willingness: Boundaries, Shared Rivers, and Conflict

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  • Kathryn Furlong
  • Nils Petter Gleditsch
  • Håvard Hegre

Abstract

International conflict has been analyzed extensively through the framework of opportunity and willingness. Opportunity has mainly been operationalized as physical proximity. Willingness has been measured in a number of ways, and remains a somewhat more elusive concept. Several scholars have called for boundary length to represent opportunity. Heeding such calls, Harvey Starr has used GIS methods to generate boundary length for 1993 and has found it to be associated with increased propensity to conflict. A number of his measures of willingness were not. Using a new and much more extensive dataset on boundary length for the entire Correlates of War period, this article finds very different results. We study the relationship with shared rivers and water scarcity as measures of neomalthusian factors in willingness over a 110-year period. The results indicate that the neomalthusian factors are significant although not dramatic in their effects. Boundary length, while associated with conflict in a bivariate analysis, fades into insignificance when the neomalthusian willingness measures are introduced. Work on this article was supported by the Research Council of Norway and started when Kathryn Furlong was a research assistant at PRIO on an internship funded by the International Institute for Sustainable Development. We are grateful to several PRIO colleagues -- Naima Mouhleb, Håvard Strand, and Lars Wilhelmsen in particular -- for help at various stages of the process. A presentation of the new boundary data used in this article is found in Furlong and Gleditsch (2003), where we record our gratitude to all of those who helped in generating that dataset. Earlier versions of this article were presented at the 44th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Portland, OR 25 February--1 March 2003 and at the Joint Sessions of Workshops, European Consortium for Political Research, Edinburgh, March 28--April 2, 2003. We are grateful to participants at both meetings for comments. The replication data to this article can be found on http://www.prio.no/cscw/data sets . We also acknowledge the very useful comments of Harvey Starr and an anonymous referee for this journal.

Suggested Citation

  • Kathryn Furlong & Nils Petter Gleditsch & Håvard Hegre, 2006. "Geographic Opportunity and Neomalthusian Willingness: Boundaries, Shared Rivers, and Conflict," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 79-108, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:32:y:2006:i:1:p:79-108
    DOI: 10.1080/03050620600596421
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Bernauer & Tobias Bohmelt, 2014. "Basins at Risk: Predicting International River Basin Conflict and Cooperation," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 14(4), pages 116-138, November.
    2. Shawna K. Metzger, 2017. "Time is on my side? The impact of timing and dispute type on militarized conflict duration," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(3), pages 308-329, May.
    3. Andrea Gerlak & Jonathan Lautze & Mark Giordano, 2011. "Water resources data and information exchange in transboundary water treaties," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 179-199, May.
    4. Marit Brochmann & Jan Ketil Rød & Nils Petter Gleditsch, 2012. "International Borders and Conflict Revisited," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 29(2), pages 170-194, April.
    5. Lisa Huber & Nico Bahro & Georg Leitinger & Ulrike Tappeiner & Ulrich Strasser, 2019. "Agent-Based Modelling of a Coupled Water Demand and Supply System at the Catchment Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-15, November.

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