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From War to Integration: Generalizing Power Transition Theory

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  • Brian Efird
  • Jacek Kugler
  • Gaspare Genna

Abstract

Generalizing the dynamics implied by power transition theory, we characterize the structural conditions that lead nations to initiate conflict or choose to integrate. The relationship between changes in relative power, hierarchical structures, and joint satisfaction are used to identify the structural conditions for conflict and cooperation. Empirical tests for the last two centuries confirm the strength and robustness of this characterization. In addition, long term assessments of Pax Britannica, the Cold War, and China's potential challenge to the United States in this century are used to illustrate the precision of these findings. The fundamental implication is that structural conditions provide the preconditions for conflict and cooperation, but decision makers have leeway in advancing policies that eventually lead to either war or peace.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Efird & Jacek Kugler & Gaspare Genna, 2003. "From War to Integration: Generalizing Power Transition Theory," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 293-313, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:29:y:2003:i:4:p:293-313
    DOI: 10.1080/714950654
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    Cited by:

    1. Priyanka Pandit, 2013. "China and the World Trade Organization," International Studies, , vol. 50(3), pages 255-271, July.
    2. Sukhee Han, 2009. "China's Pursuit of Peaceful Power Transition," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 27-42, December.
    3. Khan, Haider, 2023. "War and Peace in East Asia: Avoiding Thucydides’s Trap with China as a Rising Power," MPRA Paper 117089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Xiang Jun & Primiano Christopher B. & Huang Wei-hao, 2015. "Aggressive or Peaceful Rise? An Empirical Assessment of China’s Militarized Conflict, 1979–2010," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 301-325, August.
    5. Sandra Lavenex & Omar Serrano & Tim Büthe, 2021. "Power transitions and the rise of the regulatory state: Global market governance in flux," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(3), pages 445-471, July.
    6. Carla Norrlof & Simon Reich, 2015. "American and Chinese leadership during the global financial crisis: Testing Kindleberger’s stabilization functions," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 227-250, September.
    7. Jihyun Kim, 2018. "The Clash of Power and Nationalism: The Sino-Japan Territorial Dispute," Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, , vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, April.

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