An exploration of multi‐country political conflict/cooperation interdependence

Previous investigations of dynamic conflict actions and reactions among major countries have generally assumed the unit of analysis to be either a dyad or a triad. Our objective of the papa‐is to explore this assumption. The empirical analysis employs quarterly political conflict/cooperation among the United States, the (former) Soviet Union, China, Japan, and (West) Germany from 1950 to 1991. The model consists of a system of dynamic multiple regression equations. Various groups formed among mese countries are tested to find out whether they can be considered an autonomous unit of analysis. The analysis reveals several groups of countries whose political relations can be considered to be autonomous. In particular, either the United States‐the Soviet Union dyad or the United States‐the Soviet Union‐China triad is not an appropriate, autonomous unit of analysis in dynamic conflict action‐reaction models, because these countries are significantly influenced by the presence of other countries. New directions for future research are also suggested.