Quebec's economic and political future with North America

Through use of the expected utility forecasting model, we make predictions about the prospects for constitutional negotiations that would satisfy Quebec, as well as the likelihood that member governments of the NAFTA would accommodate Quebec and seek further integration of the North American economies. The investigation unfolds in four stages. The first section describes the historical background to the political and economic conflict associated with Quebec's problematic role in Confederation. Second, expert‐generated data on constitutional and trade issues is presented, with specific attention to Quebec's political autonomy and degree of integration in the NAFTA. The third phase contains the expected utility model's forecasting of Quebec's political and economic future with North America. Fourth, and finally, implications of the results are discussed.