The war process: Military and diplomatic dimensions during the cold war

The quantitative study of war, although one of the most important topics in the discipline of international politics, remains incomplete due to a lack of data about the evolution of events once war begins. This paper addresses the need for such data by focusing on the behavior of states during war using a new data set containing information on the military and diplomatic events of 20 interstate wars. A discussion of the war process is followed by a description of the new data set and coding procedures. The last section of the article explores the preliminary results of the data. A number of trends is examined, including initiation of events, casualties, diplomatic concessions, and military and diplomatic outcomes. The findings suggest the following: First, there is a strong association between the initiator of a military event and the winner of that event. Second, the concession rate of actors is not solely a function of military casualties but includes other intervening variables. Third, a significant association is found between a country's military performance and its negotiating behavior for those wars with a clear military outcome. Finally, the results suggest that war is more likely to be an effective tool of foreign policy when two conditions exist: (a) the military outcome is decisive, and (b) no outside powers intervene to nullify the ending of war.