South America: small wars, insurgencies & aerial acquisition programs

While maintaining minimal deterrence capabilities, South America’s has not experienced inter-state warfare in almost three decades. Internal security challenges exist, while militaries are involved in various other missions, including humanitarian assistance, search-and-rescue, combating wildfires, and combating environmental crimes like illegal fishing and illegal mining. This analysis will discuss the evolving role of South American insurgencies vis-à-vis small wars, insurgencies, and other combat and non-combat missions by focusing on regional air fleets. The types of rotary-wing and fixed-wing aircraft Air Forces, Armies, and Navies are purchasing (or domestically manufacturing) explain what kinds of missions and threats armed services are focused on today and tomorrow’s priorities. Small case studies of helicopter and combat warplane fleets across South American militaries will help us understand what regional services spend their often-limited funds on. Moreover, we will address how regional air fleets may be composed a decade from now, by 2034, considering regional geopolitics, missions, and priorities (including environmental protection). Confidence-building mechanisms and the influence, or lack thereof, of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on recent acquisition programs and strategies will provide a more complete analysis.