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The Pricing and Performance of Cryptocurrency

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  • Paul P. Momtaz

Abstract

This paper examines the performance of cryptocurrencies issued in initial coin offerings (ICOs) over a three-year period after the initial exchange listing. Average (median) ICO underpricing amounts to 15% (3%), even though 4 out of 10 ICOs destroy value on the first trading day. Liquidity, market capitalization, and high-low price ratios predict returns. Long-run buy-and-hold returns are positive for the mean and negative for the median. For holding periods between one and twenty-four months, the median ICO depreciates by 30%. Evidently, there is substantial positive skewness in the cryptocurrency market. Further, a size effect emerges from the data as an empirical regularity: Large ICOs are more often overpriced and underperform in the long run.

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  • Paul P. Momtaz, 2021. "The Pricing and Performance of Cryptocurrency," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4-5), pages 367-380, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:27:y:2021:i:4-5:p:367-380
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2019.1647259
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muneer M. Alshater & Mayank Joshipura & Rim El Khoury & Nohade Nasrallah, 2023. "Initial Coin Offerings: a Hybrid Empirical Review," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 891-908, October.
    2. Vidal-Tomás, David, 2022. "The new crypto niche: NFTs, play-to-earn, and metaverse tokens," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    3. Efstathios Polyzos & Ghulame Rubbaniy & Mieszko Mazur, 2024. "Efficient Market Hypothesis on the blockchain: A social‐media‐based index for cryptocurrency efficiency," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 807-829, August.
    4. Theo Berger & Jana Koubová, 2024. "Forecasting Bitcoin returns: Econometric time series analysis vs. machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2904-2916, November.
    5. Meoli, Michele & Vismara, Silvio, 2022. "Machine-learning forecasting of successful ICOs," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    6. Kumar, Ashish & Iqbal, Najaf & Mitra, Subrata Kumar & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Connectedness among major cryptocurrencies in standard times and during the COVID-19 outbreak," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. repec:eme:jalpps:jal-02-2023-0023 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ao Shu & Feiyang Cheng & Jianlei Han & Zini Liang & Zheyao Pan, 2023. "Arbitrage across different Bitcoin exchange venues: Perspectives from investor base and market related events," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(5), pages 5183-5210, December.
    9. Wang, Tong & Zhao, Sheng & Zhou, Mengqiu, 2022. "Does soft information in expert ratings curb information asymmetry? Evidence from crowdfunding and early transaction phases of Initial Coin offerings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Sun, Yan & Yang, Sung-Byung, 2024. "Are ICOs the best? A comparison of different fundraising models in blockchain-based fundraising," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Mansouri, Sasan & Momtaz, Paul P., 2022. "Financing sustainable entrepreneurship: ESG measurement, valuation, and performance," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 37(6).
    12. Bhambhwani, Siddharth M. & Huang, Allen H., 2024. "Auditing decentralized finance," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(2).
    13. David Vidal-Tom'as & Antonio Briola & Tomaso Aste, 2023. "FTX's downfall and Binance's consolidation: The fragility of centralised digital finance," Papers 2302.11371, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    14. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    15. Vidal-Tomás, David, 2023. "The illusion of the metaverse and meta-economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    16. de Andrés, Pablo & Arroyo, David & Correia, Ricardo & Rezola, Alvaro, 2022. "Challenges of the market for initial coin offerings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Nadire Cavus & Yakubu Bala Mohammed & Abdulsalam Ya’u Gital & Mohammed Bulama & Adamu Muhammad Tukur & Danlami Mohammed & Muhammad Lamir Isah & Abba Hassan, 2022. "Emotional Artificial Neural Networks and Gaussian Process-Regression-Based Hybrid Machine-Learning Model for Prediction of Security and Privacy Effects on M-Banking Attractiveness," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-21, May.
    18. Vidal-Tomás, David & Briola, Antonio & Aste, Tomaso, 2023. "FTX's downfall and Binance's consolidation: the fragility of centralised digital finance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119902, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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