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Bankruptcy prediction with financial systemic risk

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Listed:
  • Zhehao Jia
  • Yukun Shi
  • Cheng Yan
  • Meryem Duygun

Abstract

Financial systemic risk – defined as the risk of collapse of an entire financial system vis-à-vis any one individual financial institution – is making inroads into academic research in the aftermath of the late 2000s Global Financial Crisis. We shed light on this new concept by investigating the value of various systemic financial risk measures in the corporate failure predictions of listed nonfinancial firms. Our sample includes 225,813 firm-quarter observations covering 8,604 US firms from 2000 Q1 to 2016 Q4. We find that financial systemic risk is incrementally useful in forecasting corporate failure over and above the predictions of the traditional accounting-based and market-based factors. Our results are stronger when the firm in consideration has higher equity volatility relative to financial sector volatility, smaller size relative to the market, and more debts in current liabilities. The combined evidence suggests that systemic risk is a useful supplementary source of information in capital markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhehao Jia & Yukun Shi & Cheng Yan & Meryem Duygun, 2020. "Bankruptcy prediction with financial systemic risk," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(7-8), pages 666-690, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:26:y:2020:i:7-8:p:666-690
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2019.1656095
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    Cited by:

    1. Ding, Xin & Li, Jingshan & Song, Tiantian & Ding, Chenyang & Tan, Wenhao, 2023. "Does carbon emission of firms aggravate the risk of financial distress? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    2. Dariusz Sala & Kostiantyn Pavlov & Olena Pavlova & Anton Demchuk & Liubomur Matiichuk & Dariusz Cichoń, 2023. "Determining of the Bankrupt Contingency as the Level Estimation Method of Western Ukraine Gas Distribution Enterprises’ Competence Capacity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-13, February.
    3. A.V. Larionov, 2020. "Assessing the Financial Stability of Insurance Companies by Analyzing the Dynamics of Cash Flows," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 19(2), pages 208-224.
    4. Ji, Yu & Shi, Lina & Zhang, Shunming, 2022. "Digital finance and corporate bankruptcy risk: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

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