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The propagation of liquidity imbalances in manufacturing supply chains: evidence from a spatial auto-regressive approach

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  • Marco Lamieri
  • Ilaria Sangalli

Abstract

The number of distressed firms increased sharply during the last recessionary phase. The scope of the paper is to analyze determinants of distress by focusing the attention on trade-credit chains as the key source of contagion effects in 2009–2013. Financial and liquidity imbalances propagate along the supply chain: firms respond to late payments from customers by defaulting on payments to suppliers. The novelty of our approach consists of applying spatial econometric techniques to assess spillover effects of trade debt. We employ a representative sample of around 12,000 Italian manufacturing firms that combines balance sheet items with information collected in the Credit Register of the Italian central bank. Our proxy for supply-chain interconnections is a matrix of firm-to firm transactions which mirrors the networked structure of the industrial system. Estimates show that trade debt has been affected by spillover effects during the great crisis of 2009–2013. Moreover, trade debt and financial indebtedness exerted an impact of almost identical magnitude on firms' distress likelihoods. This evidence sheds light on the importance to move away from a static view of the trade-credit phenomenon, and to integrate solvency models with detailed information on firm-to-firm transactions which is increasingly available through big data collection.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Lamieri & Ilaria Sangalli, 2019. "The propagation of liquidity imbalances in manufacturing supply chains: evidence from a spatial auto-regressive approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(15), pages 1377-1401, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:25:y:2019:i:15:p:1377-1401
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2019.1596962
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Tangrong & Sun, Xuchu, 2023. "Is controlling shareholders' credit risk contagious to firms? — Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Berloco, Claudia & Argiento, Raffaele & Montagna, Silvia, 2023. "Forecasting short-term defaults of firms in a commercial network via Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1065-1077.
    3. Christopher M. Durugbo & Zainab Al-Balushi, 2023. "Supply chain management in times of crisis: a systematic review," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 73(3), pages 1179-1235, September.
    4. Josep Patau & Antonio Somoza & Salvador Torra, 2020. "Diagnosis of the Domino Effect in Bankruptcy Situations Through Positioning Maps and Their Evolution 10 Years Later," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, December.
    5. Vladan Pavlovic & Goranka Knezevic & Antonio Andre Cunha Callado, 2022. "Is the Corporate Solvency Conundrum Primarily a Balkan Issue or a Broader European Continental Misunderstanding?," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 72-93.

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