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Investors’ heterogeneous beliefs and the impact of sovereign credit ratings in foreign exchange and equity markets

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  • Vu Tran
  • Rasha Alsakka
  • Owain ap Gwilym

Abstract

We propose a model in which sovereign credit news from multiple rating agencies interacts with market heterogeneity. The model illustrates that the first messenger discloses new information while additional messengers play an important role of coordinating heterogeneous beliefs. Empirical investigations based on sovereign credit ratings, foreign exchange and equity markets confirm that rating news coordinates investors’ beliefs. Sovereign credit rating news from both types of messenger induces a significant impact on exchange rates and stock indices. Volatility measures increase in response to news from the first messenger while ex-post volatility reduces following news from an additional messenger.

Suggested Citation

  • Vu Tran & Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2019. "Investors’ heterogeneous beliefs and the impact of sovereign credit ratings in foreign exchange and equity markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(13), pages 1211-1233, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:25:y:2019:i:13:p:1211-1233
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2019.1586743
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    Cited by:

    1. Magdalena Adamczyk, 2020. "The impact of ratings and other information on the fluctuation of Polish stock indexes," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(3), pages 239-262.
    2. Sahibzada, Irfan Ullah, 2023. "To what extent do sovereign rating actions affect global equity market sectors?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 240-261.
    3. Al Guindy, Mohamed, 2021. "Cryptocurrency price volatility and investor attention," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 556-570.
    4. Zhao, Mengyang & Zhang, Lingxiao, 2023. "Foreign ownership, heterogeneous beliefs, and stock market volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    5. Sahibzada, Irfan Ullah & Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & Qureshi, Anum, 2022. "Impact of sovereign credit ratings on systemic risk and the moderating role of regulatory reforms: An international investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

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