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A structural model for credit risk with switching processes and synchronous jumps

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  • Donatien Hainaut
  • David B. Colwell

Abstract

This paper studies a switching regime version of Merton's structural model for the pricing of default risk. The default event depends on the total value of the firm's asset modeled by a switching Lévy process. The novelty of this approach is to consider that firm's asset jumps synchronously with a change in the regime. After a discussion of dynamics under the risk neutral measure, two models are presented. In the first one, the default happens at bond maturity, when the firm's value falls below a predetermined barrier. In the second version, the firm can enter bankruptcy at multiple predetermined discrete times. The use of a Markov chain to model switches in hidden external factors makes it possible to capture the effects of changes in trends and volatilities exhibited by default probabilities. With synchronous jumps, the firm's asset and state processes are no longer uncorrelated. Finally, some econometric evidence that switching Lévy processes, with synchronous jumps, fit well historical time series is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Donatien Hainaut & David B. Colwell, 2016. "A structural model for credit risk with switching processes and synchronous jumps," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(11), pages 1040-1062, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:22:y:2016:i:11:p:1040-1062
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2014.924079
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Charles Guy Njike Leunga & Donatien Hainaut, 2022. "Valuation of Annuity Guarantees Under a Self-Exciting Switching Jump Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 963-990, June.
    2. Donatien Hainaut & Griselda Deelstra, 2019. "A Bivariate Mutually-Excited Switching Jump Diffusion (BMESJD) for Asset Prices," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1337-1375, December.
    3. Matthias Fischer & Thorsten Moser & Marius Pfeuffer, 2018. "A Discussion on Recent Risk Measures with Application to Credit Risk: Calculating Risk Contributions and Identifying Risk Concentrations," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-28, December.
    4. Colwell, David B., 2023. "Hitting times, number of jumps, and occupation times for continuous-time finite state Markov chains," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    5. Kuang, Daipeng & Li, Jianli & Gao, Dongdong & Luo, Danfeng, 2024. "Stochastic near-optimal control for a system with Markovian switching and Lévy noise," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    6. Zeitsch, Peter J., 2019. "A jump model for credit default swaps with hierarchical clustering," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 737-775.
    7. Ketelbuters, John-John & Hainaut, Donatien, 2022. "CDS pricing with fractional Hawkes processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(3), pages 1139-1150.
    8. Hainaut, Donatien & Deelstra, Griselda, 2018. "A Bivariate Mutually-Excited Switching Jump Diffusion (BMESJD) for asset prices," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2018011, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    9. Hainaut, Donatien, 2020. "Credit risk modelling with fractional self-excited processes," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2020002, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    10. Hainaut, Donatien, 2019. "Credit risk modelling with fractional self-excited processes," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2019027, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    11. Ashwaq Ali Zarban & David Colwell & Donna Mary Salopek, 2024. "Pricing a Defaultable Zero-Coupon Bond under Imperfect Information and Regime Switching," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-19, September.

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