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Do Investors Pay Sufficient Attention to Banks’ Unrealized Gains and Losses on Available-for-sale Securities?

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  • Romain Boulland
  • Gerald J. Lobo
  • Luc Paugam

Abstract

Unrealized gains and losses on available-for-sale securities (AFSGL) are included in Other Comprehensive Income (OCI) and directly affect shareholders’ equity but are not included in earnings. We investigate whether unrealized AFSGL help predict future earnings and whether analysts and investors incorporate the information conveyed by unrealized AFSGL in a timely manner. We conduct our investigation on a sample of banks because unrealized AFSGL are material in the banking industry. First, we show that unrealized AFSGL are material and help in predicting next period realized AFSGL and future earnings change. Second, we document that financial analysts are slow to react to unrealized AFSGL and update their forecasts after AFSGL are realized in earnings. Third, we find that investors are also slow to react to unrealized AFSGL and do so only after AFSGL are included (realized) in earnings and after financial analysts update their forecasts. We document an annual difference of 5% in future abnormal returns between banks in the top and bottom quintiles of past unrealized AFSGL. A zero-cost trading strategy that relies on public information about unrealized AFSGL generates a sizeable monthly alpha that ranges between 1.8% and 1.9%.

Suggested Citation

  • Romain Boulland & Gerald J. Lobo & Luc Paugam, 2019. "Do Investors Pay Sufficient Attention to Banks’ Unrealized Gains and Losses on Available-for-sale Securities?," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 819-848, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:euract:v:28:y:2019:i:5:p:819-848
    DOI: 10.1080/09638180.2018.1562950
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    Cited by:

    1. Inês Pinto & Ana Isabel Morais, 2022. "Classification of Equity Instruments under IFRS 9: Determinants and Consequences," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 32(4), pages 411-426, December.
    2. Asyrofa Rahmi & Hung-Yuan Lu & Deron Liang & Dinda Novitasari & Chih-Fong Tsai, 2023. "Role of Comprehensive Income in Predicting Bankruptcy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(2), pages 689-720, August.
    3. Ruichang Lu & Weijia He & Xiaojun Zhang, 2023. "Using Available‐for‐sale Securities to Smooth Earnings: Evidence from China," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 59(1), pages 163-196, March.
    4. Joshua Anderson & Yiting Cao & Edward J. Riedl & Scarlett Xiaotong Song, 2023. "Other comprehensive income, its components, and analysts’ forecasts," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 792-826, June.
    5. Black, Dirk & Neururer, Thaddeus, 2024. "Do analysts provide information about other comprehensive income in book value forecasts for financial firms?," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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