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Sooner or Later? -- Paradoxical Investment Effects of Capital Gains Taxation under Simultaneous Investment and Abandonment Flexibility

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  • Rainer Niemann
  • Caren Sureth

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of capital gains taxation on investment timing decisions for risky investment projects with entry and exit flexibility under differential tax rates for ordinary income and capital gains. We investigate whether capital gains taxation influences immediate and delayed investments asymmetrically, given the optimal abandonment decision. If capital gains taxation induces a lock-in effect, this effect is anticipated in the investment timing decision. In contrast to prior research, our numerical simulations show that this lock-in effect of capital gains taxation can induce normal as well as paradoxical effects on investment timing under simultaneous entry and exit flexibility. A paradoxical timing effect, i.e., investment accelerated by capital gains taxation, especially emerges for high liquidation proceeds or, more conservative tax accounting, low interest rates, and low volatilities. In these cases, capital gains taxation reduces the value of the option to invest and hereby increases the propensity to invest immediately. As a second paradoxical tax effect, capital gains taxation may favor delayed real investment over financial investment. Facing these results, tax legislators should not use capital gains taxation as a short-term tax policy instrument to influence investors' timing decisions.

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  • Rainer Niemann & Caren Sureth, 2013. "Sooner or Later? -- Paradoxical Investment Effects of Capital Gains Taxation under Simultaneous Investment and Abandonment Flexibility," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 367-390, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:euract:v:22:y:2013:i:2:p:367-390
    DOI: 10.1080/09638180.2012.682781
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Bauer & Thomas Kourouxous, 2017. "Capital Charge Rates, Investment Incentives and Taxation," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 419-440, July.
    2. Rainer Niemann & Mariana Sailer, 2023. "Is analytical tax research alive and kicking? Insights from 2000 until 2022," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(6), pages 1149-1212, August.
    3. Rainer Niemann & Silke Rünger, 2017. "Der Einfluss der Abgeltungssteuer auf die Haltedauer von Aktien – eine empirische Untersuchung von Directors’ Dealings am deutschen Kapitalmarkt [The Impact of the Introduction of a Final Withholdi," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 41-80, March.
    4. Fahr, René & Janssen, Elmar & Sureth, Caren, 2014. "Can tax rate increases foster investment under entry and exit flexibility? Insights from an economic experiment," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 166, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    5. Mehrmann, Annika & Sureth-Sloane, Caren, 2017. "Tax loss offset restrictions and biased perception of risky investments," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 222, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    6. Annika Hegemann & Angela Kunoth & Kristina Rupp & Caren Sureth-Sloane, 2017. "Hold or sell? How capital gains taxation affects holding decisions," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 571-603, July.
    7. Bornemann, Tobias, 2018. "Do transfer pricing rules distort R&D investment decisions?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 233, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    8. Rainer Niemann & Caren Sureth-Sloane, 2019. "Investment timing effects of wealth taxes under uncertainty and irreversibility," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 89(4), pages 385-415, June.
    9. Hegemann, Annika & Kunoth, Angela & Rupp, Kristina & Sureth, Caren, 2015. "Impact of capital gains taxation on the holding period of investments under different tax systems," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 183, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    10. Rainer Niemann & Caren Sureth-Sloane, 2016. "Does Capital Tax Uncertainty Delay Irreversible Risky Investment?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6046, CESifo.
    11. Maier, Christoph & Schanz, Deborah, 2017. "Towards neutral distribution taxes and vanishing tax effects in the European Union," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 215, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.

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