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Stock return predictability: A factor-augmented predictive regression system with shrinkage method

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  • Saburo Ohno
  • Tomohiro Ando

Abstract

To predict stock market behaviors, we use a factor-augmented predictive regression with shrinkage to incorporate the information available across literally thousands of financial and economic variables. The system is constructed in terms of both expected returns and the tails of the return distribution. We develop the variable selection consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator. To select the regularization parameter, we employ the prediction error, with the aim of predicting the behavior of the stock market. Through analysis of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, we find that a large number of variables provide useful information for predicting stock market behaviors.

Suggested Citation

  • Saburo Ohno & Tomohiro Ando, 2018. "Stock return predictability: A factor-augmented predictive regression system with shrinkage method," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 29-60, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:37:y:2018:i:1:p:29-60
    DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2014.977086
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    Cited by:

    1. Yingying Xu & Jichang Zhao, 2022. "Can sentiments on macroeconomic news explain stock returns? Evidence form social network data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2073-2088, April.
    2. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Massacci, Daniele & Soccorsi, Stefano, 2021. "Forecasting stock returns with large dimensional factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 252-269.
    3. González-Rivera, Gloria & Maldonado, Javier & Ruiz, Esther, 2019. "Growth in stress," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 948-966.
    4. Mahsa Ghorbani & Edwin K. P. Chong, 2022. "A dimension reduction method for stock-price prediction using multiple predictors," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 2859-2878, July.
    5. Mahsa Ghorbani & Edwin K P Chong, 2020. "Stock price prediction using principal components," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-20, March.

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