Which college types increase earnings? Estimates from geographic proximity

The question of why postsecondary institutions produce different labor market outcomes is difficult to answer due to unobserved student characteristics. Here, I leverage students' geographic proximity to three classifications of postsecondary institutions – earnings-enhancing, competitive, and Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs). Using a nationally representative sample, I estimate attainment and earnings effects of first attending each type. Attending an institution classified as earnings-enhancing increases humanities credit completion, degree attainment, and early-career wages. Among underrepresented students, living closest to an HBCU strongly predicts HBCU enrollment. This yields higher STEM credit completion but lower early-career wages, suggesting possible labor market bias.Abbreviations: Competitive: Barron's Top 3 Selectivity Tier Institution; HBCU:Historically Black College or University; HSI: High-Success Institution; STEM: Science; Technology; Engineering; and Mathematics; Underrepresented Minority (URM): Black; Indigenous; or Hispanic/LatinxHIGHLIGHTS Nearest-college attributes predict college choice for many high school students, especially those living near HBCUs.Colleges previously linked to students' wage mobility yield higher earnings by students' mid-20s.Higher earnings effects coincide with higher humanities credit completion, bachelor's completion, and postbaccalaureate training.HBCU attendance relative to other options yields higher STEM credit completion, but lower early-career wages.HBCU attendance relative to no college also increases humanities credit completion and bachelor's degree completion.