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Estimation Of Production Capacity Loss Rate After The Great East Japan Earthquake And Tsunami In 2011

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  • Yoshio Kajitani
  • Hirokazu Tatano

Abstract

This research aims to investigate a method for estimating the production capacity loss rate (PCLR) of industrial sectors damaged by a disaster, such as an earthquake, tsunami, or nuclear radiation, particularly the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. PCLR is fundamental information required to gain an understanding of economic losses caused by a disaster. In particular, this paper proposes a method of PCLR estimation that considers the two main causes of capacity losses as observed from past earthquake disasters, namely damage to production facilities and disruption of lifeline systems. To achieve the quantitative estimation of PCLR, functional fragility curves considering the relationship between production capacity and earthquake ground motion and lifeline resilience factors for capturing the impact of lifeline disruptions have been adopted, while actual recovery curves are considered mainly for damaged facilities. Through the application of this method to the case study of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the PCLR in various industrial sectors is estimated; the estimated PCLR in the manufacturing sectors are then compared to the corresponding index of industrial production. The results demonstrate that the estimated values are close to the actual production indices in the overall manufacturing sector and many of the individual sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshio Kajitani & Hirokazu Tatano, 2014. "Estimation Of Production Capacity Loss Rate After The Great East Japan Earthquake And Tsunami In 2011," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 13-38, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:26:y:2014:i:1:p:13-38
    DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2013.872081
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    Cited by:

    1. Otto, Christian & Willner, Sven Norman & Wenz, Leonie & Frieler, Katja & Levermann, Anders, 2017. "Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate," OSF Preprints 7yyhd, Center for Open Science.
    2. Otto, C. & Willner, S.N. & Wenz, L. & Frieler, K. & Levermann, A., 2017. "Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 232-269.
    3. Liu, Huan & Tatano, Hirokazu & Pflug, Georg & Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan, 2021. "Post-disaster recovery in industrial sectors: A Markov process analysis of multiple lifeline disruptions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    4. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Hamano, Masashige & Vermeulen, Wessel N., 2021. "Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: Lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. Xinyu Jiang & Nobuhito Mori & Hirokazu Tatano & Lijiao Yang, 2019. "Simulation-Based Exceedance Probability Curves to Assess the Economic Impact of Storm Surge Inundations due to Climate Change: A Case Study in Ise Bay, Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Robert Bierkandt & Leonie Wenz & Sven Norman Willner & Anders Levermann, 2014. "Acclimate—a model for economic damage propagation. Part 1: basic formulation of damage transfer within a global supply network and damage conserving dynamics," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 507-524, December.
    7. David Nortes Martínez & Frédéric Grelot & Pauline Bremond & Stefano Farolfi & Juliette Rouchier, 2021. "Are interactions important in estimating flood damage to economic entities? The case of wine-making in France," Post-Print hal-03609616, HAL.
    8. Hosoya, Kei, 2016. "Recovery from natural disaster: A numerical investigation based on the convergence approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 410-420.
    9. Lijiao Yang & Yishuang Qi & Xinyu Jiang, 2021. "An Investigation of the Initial Recovery Time of Chinese Enterprises Affected by COVID-19 Using an Accelerated Failure Time Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-16, November.
    10. Rui Huang & Arunima Malik & Manfred Lenzen & Yutong Jin & Yafei Wang & Futu Faturay & Zhiyi Zhu, 2022. "Supply-chain impacts of Sichuan earthquake: a case study using disaster input–output analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 2227-2248, February.
    11. Lijiao Yang & Yoshio Kajitani & Hirokazu Tatano & Xinyu Jiang, 2016. "A methodology for estimating business interruption loss caused by flood disasters: insights from business surveys after Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 411-430, November.
    12. Leonie Wenz & Sven Norman Willner & Robert Bierkandt & Anders Levermann, 2014. "Acclimate—a model for economic damage propagation. Part II: a dynamic formulation of the backward effects of disaster-induced production failures in the global supply network," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 525-539, December.
    13. Weijiang Li & Jiahong Wen & Bo Xu & Xiande Li & Shiqiang Du, 2018. "Integrated Assessment of Economic Losses in Manufacturing Industry in Shanghai Metropolitan Area Under an Extreme Storm Flood Scenario," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, December.
    14. Yoshio Kajitani & Hirokazu Tatano, 2018. "Applicability of a spatial computable general equilibrium model to assess the short-term economic impact of natural disasters," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 289-312, July.
    15. J. A. León & M. Ordaz & E. Haddad & I. F. Araújo, 2022. "Risk caused by the propagation of earthquake losses through the economy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Irfan Ahmed & Claudio Socci & Rosita Pretaroli & Francesca Severini & Stefano Deriu, 2022. "Socioeconomic spillovers of the 2016–2017 Italian earthquakes: a bi-regional inoperability model," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 426-453, January.

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