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Evaluating Uncertainty In Risk-Based Interdependency Modeling With Interval Arithmetic

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  • Kash Barker
  • Claudio Rocco S.

Abstract

Several sources of uncertainty exist in the effort to quantify the efficacy of preparedness decision-making in interdependent systems. For the Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM), a risk-based extension of the traditional Leontief model, which describes the propagation of inoperability throughout interconnected economic sectors, uncertainty is manifested in parameters describing the strength of interdependencies among sectors and in parameters describing the adverse impacts of a disruptive event, among others. As the model is used to evaluate preparedness options to reduce the impact of these disruptive events, such uncertainty can impact decision-making efforts. This paper introduces interval arithmetic as an approach for dealing with uncertainties in the IIM when probability distributions are not known and only variable bounds are available. Illustrative examples highlight the use of the approach as well as a means to improve the evaluation and comparison of risk management strategies in interdependent systems when only intervals are known.

Suggested Citation

  • Kash Barker & Claudio Rocco S., 2011. "Evaluating Uncertainty In Risk-Based Interdependency Modeling With Interval Arithmetic," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 213-232.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:23:y:2011:i:2:p:213-232
    DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2011.572064
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kash Barker & Kaycee J. Wilson, 2012. "Decision Trees with Single and Multiple Interval-Valued Objectives," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 348-358, December.
    2. Umed Temurshoev, 2015. "Uncertainty treatment in input-output analysis," Working Papers 2015-004, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Department of Economics.
    3. Yongzhi Cao, 2014. "Reducing Interval-Valued Decision Trees to Conventional Ones: Comments on Decision Trees with Single and Multiple Interval-Valued Objectives," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 204-212, September.
    4. Adam Rose & Dan Wei, 2013. "Estimating The Economic Consequences Of A Port Shutdown: The Special Role Of Resilience," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 212-232, June.

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