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Predicting Negative Effects Of The Second Intifada: An Ex-Post Evaluation Of Some Models

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  • Paul de Boer
  • Marco Missaglia

Abstract

In 2003, the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and de Boer and Missaglia (DBM) constructed models for the estimation of the 2002 macro-economic indicators of the economy of Palestine. In 2007, IMF and WB provided the consensus estimates of these figures using data that are more up-to-date and more complete than those available in 2003. This note proposes an ex-post evaluation of the predictive performance of the models of WB, DBM and IMF. A comparison of the models of WB and DBM, which are both micro-founded computable general equilibrium models using the same data, reveals that DBM strongly outperforms WB. We argue that the shortening of the time horizon and the quantity adjustment following the dramatic shock explain why our model performs much better. A comparison of DBM with IMF (a simple macro-founded income-expenditure model) also shows that our model performs better.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul de Boer & Marco Missaglia, 2010. "Predicting Negative Effects Of The Second Intifada: An Ex-Post Evaluation Of Some Models," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 193-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:22:y:2010:i:2:p:193-199
    DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2010.484013
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    Cited by:

    1. de Boer, P.M.C., 2009. "Modeling household behavior in a CGE model: linear expenditure system or indirect addilog?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-16, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

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