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The U-shaped relationship between patent age and patent value: evidence from assigned patents in China

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  • Li-Ming Li
  • Yu-Hang Liu
  • Ya-Feng Zhang

Abstract

We propose that opposite changes in the hazards of patent commercialization (HPC) and technology substitution (HTS) lead to a U-shaped relationship between patent age and patent value. Using a dataset of 2446 patents assigned to firms in Chinese universities from 2015-2020, our empirical results support this U-shaped relationship. Young patents with more claims are regarded as more valuable, owing to a lower HPC, and old patents with more International Patent Classification (IPC) classes are regarded as more valuable, owing to a lower HTS. Moreover, backward references had a moderate effect on the U-shaped relationship, and an increase in backward references caused the turning point to move to the right, flattening the U-shaped relationship. Interestingly, the turning point of the U-shaped relationship is around the age of 5.2 years, and the hazard of university patent invalidation in China is highest at this age.

Suggested Citation

  • Li-Ming Li & Yu-Hang Liu & Ya-Feng Zhang, 2024. "The U-shaped relationship between patent age and patent value: evidence from assigned patents in China," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 830-852, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecinnt:v:33:y:2024:i:6:p:830-852
    DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2023.2255978
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