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Tax policy endogeneity: evidence from R&D tax credits

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  • Andrew C. Chang

Abstract

This paper estimates the causal effect of research and development (R&D) tax incentives on R&D expenditures using new data on U.S. states. Identifying tax variation comes from changes in federal corporate tax laws that heterogeneously and, due to the simultaneity of state and federal corporate taxes, automatically affect state-level tax laws. Instrumental variables regressions indicate that a 1% increase in R&D tax incentives causes a statistically significant 2.8–3.8% increase in R&D. Alternatively, ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions of R&D expenditures on R&D tax incentives, which do not correct for the policy endogeneity of R&D tax incentives, indicate that a 1% increase in R&D tax incentives causes a statistically insignificant 0.4–0.7% increase in R&D. One possible explanation for these results is that tax policies are implemented before an economic downturn.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew C. Chang, 2018. "Tax policy endogeneity: evidence from R&D tax credits," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(8), pages 809-833, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecinnt:v:27:y:2018:i:8:p:809-833
    DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2017.1415001
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    Cited by:

    1. Gianluca Pallante & Emanuele Russo & Andrea Roventini, 2020. "Does mission-oriented funding stimulate private R&D? Evidence from military R&D for US states," Working Papers hal-04097530, HAL.
    2. Justus Baron & Cher Li & Shukhrat Nasirov, 2019. "Why do R&D-intensive firms participate in standards organizations? The role of patents and product-market position," Discussion Papers 2019-16, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    3. Marialuisa Divella & Alessia Lo Turco & Alessandro Sterlacchini, 2023. "Local labour tasks and patenting in US commuting zones," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1097-1119.
    4. Bronwyn H. Hall, 2020. "Tax Policy for Innovation," NBER Chapters, in: Innovation and Public Policy, pages 151-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Yawei Qi & Wenxiang Peng & Neal N. Xiong, 2020. "The Effects of Fiscal and Tax Incentives on Regional Innovation Capability: Text Extraction Based on Python," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-19, July.
    6. Andrew C. Chang & Linda R. Cohen & Amihai Glazer & Urbashee Paul, 2021. "Politicians Avoid Tax Increases Around Elections," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-004, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Melnik, Walter & Smyth, Andrew, 2024. "R&D tax credits and innovation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    8. Brian Lucking & Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen, 2019. "Have R&D Spillovers Declined in the 21st Century?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 561-590, December.
    9. Karbowski Adam & Prokop Jacek, 2020. "The Impact of Patents and R&D Cooperation on R&D Investments in a Differentiated Goods Industry," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 122-133, June.
    10. Wruck, Karen H. & Wu, YiLin, 2021. "The relation between CEO equity incentives and the quality of accounting disclosures: New evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    11. Pallante, Gianluca & Russo, Emanuele & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "Does public R&D funding crowd-in private R&D investment? Evidence from military R&D expenditures for US states," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(8).
    12. Chang, Kai & Wan, Qiong & Lou, Qichun & Chen, Yili & Wang, Weihong, 2020. "Green fiscal policy and firms’ investment efficiency: New insights into firm-level panel data from the renewable energy industry in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 589-597.
    13. Oliver, Edward & Kourouklis, Dimitrios & Jofre-Bonet, Mireia, 2024. "Do R&D tax credits impact pharmaceutical innovation? Evidence from a synthetic control approach," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(8).

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