Costs, risks, and benefits of a global military capability for the European union

This article contains estimates of the economic and political costs and risks for the build-up, maintenance, modernization, and operation of a global military power projection for the EU, which is comparable in size and effectiveness to that of the USA. Build-up costs for such a capacity are estimated as 200-400bn ECU or an increase of about 50% to the defence budgets of NATO Europe of 1995. In relative terms this would mean defence expenditures of 2.8-3.8% of GDP, which seems tolerable compared to figures of the 1970s and 1980s. For the EU budget this would mean, however, not only nearly tripling but an increase from 1.3% to 4.8% of GDP. While other economic costs are marginal, the political costs for such a fundamental change in the EU's character, for reversing political trends in defence spending, and for transferring sensitive national sovereignty to the EU and the risk for public support, party cohesion, and elections are considerable. These political costs and potential risks have to be compared with benefits of becoming a second global power, of becoming independent from US security, and from major positive effects for EU integration in general.