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What Goes Up Must Come Down: Military Expenditure and Civil Wars

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  • Laura E. Armey
  • Robert M. McNab

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of civil war on military expenditure. We employ two measures of military expenditure: the share of military expenditure in general government expenditure and the logarithm of military expenditures. We would reasonably expect a priori that military expenditure as a share of general government expenditure increases during a civil war and that such increases would taper off over the duration of a civil war. We also explore whether the termination of a civil war induces a decline in the share of military expenditure as a share of the general government expenditure in the short-run. We find evidence the of share of military expenditure increases during a civil war and falls in the year succeeding the end of a civil war, and, in particular, if a war ends in a peace treaty. The level of military expenditures, however, rises during civil wars and does not appear to decline in the short-term after the end of a civil war.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura E. Armey & Robert M. McNab, 2019. "What Goes Up Must Come Down: Military Expenditure and Civil Wars," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 570-591, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:5:p:570-591
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1405235
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