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The Demand for Military Expenditure in Europe: The Role of Fiscal Space in the Context of a Resurgent Russia

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  • Edward Hunter Christie

Abstract

A variant of established work on the demand for military expenditure is developed based on a practical concept of fiscal space from the perspective of short-term government choices concerning public expenditures. A new indicator, referred to as fiscal capacity, is defined and used as a candidate explanatory variable in an empirical model of European defence spending over the 2007–2016 period. Fiscal capacity is found to outperform simpler measurements of economic conditions, notably GDP growth forecasts, in explaining changes in defence spending efforts as a share of GDP. Regarding security environment variables, the results suggest that Russia has recently come to be seen as a potential military threat by European nations, leading to defence spending increases, the more so the shorter the distance to stationed or deployed Russian forces, and particularly so by those European nations that have a land border with Russia. A prospective exercise is then carried out in order to assess the capacity of EU member states that are also members of NATO to reach NATO’s 2% goal for defence spending over a mid-term horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward Hunter Christie, 2019. "The Demand for Military Expenditure in Europe: The Role of Fiscal Space in the Context of a Resurgent Russia," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 72-84, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:1:p:72-84
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1373542
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    Cited by:

    1. Justin George & Todd Sandler, 2021. "EU Demand for Defense, 1990–2019: A Strategic Spatial Approach," Games, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Becker Jordan & Kuokštytė Ringailė & Kuokštis Vytautas, 2023. "The Political Economy of Transatlantic Security – A Policy Perspective," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 55-77, June.
    3. Kiryl Rudy, 2022. "Military Economy and Economic Growth: Bidirectional Effects in Transition Economies of Eurasia," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(3), pages 285-300, September.
    4. Johannes Blum & Niklas Potrafke, 2020. "Does a Change of Government Influence Compliance with International Agreements? Empirical Evidence for the NATO Two Percent Target," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 743-761, October.
    5. Abdul Rehman & Hengyun Ma & Rafael Alvarado & Fayyaz Ahmad, 2023. "The nexus of military, final consumption expenditures, total reserves, and economic development of Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1753-1776, June.

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