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The Cyprus puzzle and the Greek - Turkish arms race: Forecasting developments using genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps

Author

Listed:
  • A. S. Andreou
  • N. H. Mateou
  • G. A. Zombanakis

Abstract

The scope of this paper is to forecast the extent to which a settlement of the Cyprus issue may be possible given the decisions taken during the Copenhagen EU summit. It aims, in addition, at investigating the possibilities of improvement in Greek-Turkish relations which may lead, in turn, to reducing the arms race between the two countries. The paper uses a Genetically Evolved Certainty Neuron Fuzzy Cognitive Map algorithm to consider a number of scenarios examining the possible reactions of all sides involved in the Cyprus issue, namely Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, the Turkish-Cypriot community and the international environment. All simulation exercises suggest that the Greek and the Cypriot side should not necessarily rely on the decisions taken during the Copenhagen summit conference. The forecasts point out, in addition, that the optimism of the Greek government concerning the outlook of its relations with Turkey, and a subsequent reduction of the arms race against it, is far from being justified.

Suggested Citation

  • A. S. Andreou & N. H. Mateou & G. A. Zombanakis, 2003. "The Cyprus puzzle and the Greek - Turkish arms race: Forecasting developments using genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 293-310.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:4:p:293-310
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690302931
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    Cited by:

    1. Bélgica Bermeo Córdova & José Luis Yagüe Blanco & Maritza Satama & Carlos Jara, 2020. "Identification of Variables That Cause Agricultural Graduates Not to Return to the Rural Sector in Ecuador. Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-20, May.
    2. Athanasios Tsadiras & Maria Pempetzoglou & Iosif Viktoratos, 2021. "Making Predictions of Global Warming Impacts Using a Semantic Web Tool that Simulates Fuzzy Cognitive Maps," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 715-745, October.
    3. Dunne J. Paul & Nikolaidou Eftychia & Smith Ron P., 2005. "Is there an Arms Race between Greece and Turkey?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 140-174, November.
    4. Youngseok Choi & Habin Lee & Zahir Irani, 2018. "Big data-driven fuzzy cognitive map for prioritising IT service procurement in the public sector," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 270(1), pages 75-104, November.

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