Financial transitions in the PRC: banking on the state?

The reappearance of substantial debt in China after 2008 has refocused attention on the sustainability of the existing financial ‘model’. It’s not just that ‘traditional’ forms of bank-centred debt have re-emerged, but that the informal ‘shadow banking’ sector also seems increasingly fragile, generating debts that do not seem easy to repay. Explanations for the current situation focus on the way in which China responded to the global financial crisis, and on the incentives that exist to go outside the formal and more regulated banking system into often riskier activities. But there are more fundamental structural issues. The current financial system contains within it some of the dna of its predecessor, while the spatial distribution of power and authority is inextricably linked to the way the financial system functions. While it might be possible to tinker with some elements of current financial problems, the relationship between local government financing, land, the banking system and key economic sectors makes it difficult to resolve more structural issues without taking a holistic approach; one that would have fundamental consequences for the nature of the Chinese state, and the distribution of power within it.