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Predicting downtime costs of tracked hydraulic excavators operating in the UK opencast mining industry

Author

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  • David Edwards
  • Gary Holt
  • Frank Harris

Abstract

This paper describes the development of a model to predict the hourly cost of downtime (using regression equations) for tracked hydraulic excavators operating in the UK opencast mining industry. A three-stage process was utilized for the model's development. The first stage predicted machine cycle times, the second predicted hire costs per hour and the third used the outputs of the first two to forecast the cost of breakdown. Both cycle time and hire cost models were revealed to be good predictors, as exhibited by the 'high' R2 values of 0.86 and 0.95, respectively. A plant expert employed within the Defence Logistics Organisation, UK Ministry of Defence, validated these regression models and the process by which downtime costs were predicted. Future research work will aim to enhance the predictive ability of the models developed, expand the research to cover other machine types, and reproduce the findings in graphical and tabular format to improve the interpretation of information generated.

Suggested Citation

  • David Edwards & Gary Holt & Frank Harris, 2002. "Predicting downtime costs of tracked hydraulic excavators operating in the UK opencast mining industry," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(7), pages 581-591.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:20:y:2002:i:7:p:581-591
    DOI: 10.1080/01446190210163552
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pascual, R. & Meruane, V. & Rey, P.A., 2008. "On the effect of downtime costs and budget constraint on preventive and replacement policies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 144-151.
    2. Budai-Balke, G. & Dekker, R. & Nicolai, R.P., 2006. "A review of planning models for maintenance and production," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-44, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

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