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Macro-economic leading indicators of construction contract prices

Author

Listed:
  • Akintola Akintoye
  • Paul Bowen
  • Cliff Hardcastle

Abstract

An understanding of future trends in construction prices is likely to influence the construction investment strategy of a variety of interested parties, ranging from private and public clients to construction contractors, property speculators, financial institutions, and construction professionals. This paper derives leading indicators for construction prices in the United Kingdom. These indicators are based on two experimental methods: turning points of the basic indicators in relation to construction price turning points; and predictive power of lags of the basic indicators. It is concluded, based on the analyses, that unemployment level, construction output, industrial production, and ratio of price to cost indices in manufacturing are consistent leading indicators of construction prices. Building cost index and gross national product constitute coincident indicators. 'Popular' macro-economic time series such as nominal interest rate, inflation rate, real interest rate, all share index and money supply produced inconclusive results.

Suggested Citation

  • Akintola Akintoye & Paul Bowen & Cliff Hardcastle, 1998. "Macro-economic leading indicators of construction contract prices," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 159-175.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:16:y:1998:i:2:p:159-175
    DOI: 10.1080/014461998372466
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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Le & Liu, Henry J. & Edwards, David J. & Sing, Michael C.P., 2021. "Housing price dynamics on residential construction: A case study of the Australian property sector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 525-532.
    2. Thanh NGUYEN, Phong & Le Hoang Thuy To NGUYEN, Quyen, 2020. "Critical Factors Affecting Construction Price Index: An Integrated Fuzzy Logic and Analytical Hierarchy Process," MPRA Paper 103437, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 May 2020.

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