From NAFTA to USMCA: revisiting the market access – policy space trade-off

This paper contributes to the literature on the evolution of North–South trade agreements, which historically involved countries in the global South relinquishing policy space for activist trade and industrial policies in exchange for locking-in preferential and stable market access. It takes as case study the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), drawing on the agreements, media coverage of the negotiations, and 107 interviews with negotiators and stakeholders in all three countries. I show how the renegotiation resulted in changing conflicts: while the Mexican government attempted to preserve its market access and sought to further restrict its policy space due to path dependence, the Trump administration wanted to reduce market access for Mexico and create uncertainty to re-shore production. The Trump administration partially succeeded by undermining the lock-in effect of trade agreements and including unprecedented provisions in USMCA. The actions of the Biden administration indicate a long-term shift in US trade policy towards protectionism. Combined with the USMCA sunset clause, this creates the risk that the US will use USMCA review periods to create market access uncertainty instead of seizing the opportunities to strengthen North American economic cooperation.