Germany’s Industrial strategy 2030, EU competition policy and the Crisis of New Constitutionalism. (Geo-)political economy of a contested paradigm shift

In early 2019, the German Ministry of Economic Affairs revealed its National Industrial Strategy 2030. Even though attenuated due to fierce domestic opposition, it marks a shift towards a more selective, interventionist industrial policy. In particular, this shift has instigated far-reaching upheavals in EU competition policy under Franco-German pressure. This article probes into the determinants of this shift in Germany, a country (in-)famous for its allegedly ordoliberal stance, especially with regard to competition policy and EU economic integration. Drawing on regulation and critical state theory, neo-Gramscian IPE as well as historical materialist policy analysis, and based on trade and investment data, document analysis and expert interviews, it reconstructs the crisis tendencies and the constellation of interests and actors which have underpinned this shift in Germany. The article argues that – in face of growing geopolitical rivalries and technological decoupling – the NIS 2030 indicates a strategic re-orientation in relevant parts of the German power bloc towards actively promoting ‘technological sovereignty’ and ‘European champions’, thereby also calling into question an important facet of the EU’s neoliberal new-constitutionalist architecture. However, this re-orientation is deeply contested, revealing growing divisions within German capital along diverging competitive positions and patterns of internationalisation.