IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/cijwxx/v40y2024i1p7-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projecting conflict risk in transboundary river basins by 2050 following different ambition scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Sophie Pieternel de Bruin
  • Susanne Schmeier
  • Rens van Beek
  • Marijn Gulpen

Abstract

This study presents three global scenario projections of conflict risk in transboundary river basins by combining scenario projection data on risks identified in the existing literature. Under a business-as-usual scenario, 920 million people are projected to live in very high to high conflict-risk basins by 2050. In the low ambition scenario, this number decreases to 724 million people, while in the high ambition scenario, it decreases to 536 million. Large basins with specifically high conflict risk are the Juba–Shibeli, Lake Turkana, Indus and Irrawaddy. These findings hope to inform water diplomacy, conflict prevention and mitigation support for basins at risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophie Pieternel de Bruin & Susanne Schmeier & Rens van Beek & Marijn Gulpen, 2024. "Projecting conflict risk in transboundary river basins by 2050 following different ambition scenarios," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 7-32, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:cijwxx:v:40:y:2024:i:1:p:7-32
    DOI: 10.1080/07900627.2023.2184650
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/07900627.2023.2184650
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/07900627.2023.2184650?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:cijwxx:v:40:y:2024:i:1:p:7-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/cijw20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.