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Forecast-informed reservoir operations to guide hydropower and agriculture allocations in the Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia

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  • Sarah Alexander
  • Guang Yang
  • Girmachew Addisu
  • Paul Block

Abstract

Predictive hydroclimate information, coupled with reservoir system models, offers the potential to mitigate climate variability risks. Prior methodologies rely on sub-seasonal, dynamic/synthetic forecasts at short timescales, which challenge application in practice. Here, coupling a local-scale seasonal, statistical streamflow forecast with a reservoir model addresses this gap, to explore hydropower and agricultural production benefits under various operational strategies. Forecast-informed optimization of reservoir releases increases energy production (6–14%), agriculture allocations (54–68%), and net profit. Application to Ethiopia showcases a novel seasonal-scale statistical forecast coupled reservoir model that translates hydroclimatic predictions into actionable information for better management at the local scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Alexander & Guang Yang & Girmachew Addisu & Paul Block, 2021. "Forecast-informed reservoir operations to guide hydropower and agriculture allocations in the Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 208-233, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:cijwxx:v:37:y:2021:i:2:p:208-233
    DOI: 10.1080/07900627.2020.1745159
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    Cited by:

    1. Mekonnen Gebremichael & Haowen Yue & Vahid Nourani & Richard Damoah, 2022. "The Skills of Medium-Range Precipitation Forecasts in the Senegal River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, March.

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