The Rohingya repatriation myth: why repatriation from Bangladesh to Myanmar is (nigh) impossible

Almost a million Rohingya refugees remain trapped in refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, more than six years after being driven from Myanmar. The stated policy of the international community remains voluntary repatriation. This paper lays out our argument that the narrative of repatriation is a myth, not a genuine possibility any time in the next decade or more. Our central argument is that full repatriation of the whole refugee population is completely impossible regardless of outcome of the civil war in Myanmar, probably ever, and even repatriation of a sizeable minority is speculative, reliant on either the Arakan Army winning clear territorial control or a democratic government coming to power that gains clear control over the military. Even in these best-case scenarios, we argue that the demographic pressure of some 1.2 million Rohingya potentially returning to Rakhine State would be so destabilising as to make it an impossibility.