Reformasi Reversal: Structural Drivers of Democratic Decline In Jokowi’s Middle-Income Indonesia

This article surveys the marquee events in the year ahead of Indonesia’s 2024 election, finding that the field of democratic political contestation has further narrowed due to the criminalisation of political opponents, the end of the campaign against corruption, the decline of judicial activism, political recentralisation and the collapse of national protest movements. Examined in totality, this article argues not only that Indonesia’s reformasi movement is dead as a salient political force, but also that today’s political elites seek to roll back many of its core achievements. While elites continue to support national elections, those in 2024 will occur in the context of a weakened opposition and heavy presidential interference in the coalition formation of key candidates. Why has democratic contestation, including by oppositional and protest movements, contracted so noticeably under the two-term Joko Widodo (Jokowi) presidency? The article proposes a structural contribution to the continuing debate about Indonesia’s democratic decline, arguing that Indonesia’s middle-income status under Jokowi has been accompanied by dramatic changes to the country’s socio-economic makeup. Importantly, Indonesia’s electorate is now dominated by a massive number of ‘precariously non-poor’ whose dream of social mobility lies in the provision of quality government services and changes to the structure of labour. This article suggests that the intractable political challenge of managing this group’s aspirations for economic security in a context of lagging reform has set in train the demobilisation of the opposition, the consolidation of President Jokowi’s ruling coalition and the curtailing of political contestation. The project of managing the political economy of the middle-income trap will continue to dominate Indonesia’s political future regardless of which coalition will triumph in 2024.