IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/bindes/v56y2020i2p175-192.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 on Poverty in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Asep Suryahadi
  • Ridho Al Izzati
  • Daniel Suryadarma

Abstract

Covid-19 has infected and will continue to infect millions of people all over the world. The economic impact is predicted to be large and millions of people will be pushed into poverty. In this paper, we estimate the impact of Covid-19 on poverty in Indonesia. The economic impact is expected to be severe, reducing the economic growth rate projected for 2020 from about 5% to between 4.2% and –3.5%. We find that under the best-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase from 9.2% in September 2019 to 9.7% by the end of 2020, pushing 1.3 million more people into poverty. Under the worst-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase to 16.6%, close to the level seen in 2004 when the poverty rate was 16.7%. This means that 19.7 million more people will become poor, substantially reversing Indonesia’s progress in reducing poverty. The implication is that Indonesia will need to expand its social protection programs to assist the new poor as well as the existing poor.

Suggested Citation

  • Asep Suryahadi & Ridho Al Izzati & Daniel Suryadarma, 2020. "Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 on Poverty in Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 175-192, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:56:y:2020:i:2:p:175-192
    DOI: 10.1080/00074918.2020.1779390
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00074918.2020.1779390
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00074918.2020.1779390?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Jahen F. Rezki & Arief Ramayandi & Aryo Sasongko & Dinda T. Andariesta, 2022. "The Potential Scarring Effect Of Covid19 On Productivity And Labor Market: The Case Of Indonesia," Working Papers WP/09/2022, Bank Indonesia.
    2. Giulia Barletta & Finório Castigo & Eva‐Maria Egger & Michael Keller & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on consumption poverty in Mozambique," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 771-802, May.
    3. Teresa Cuerdo-Vilches & Miguel Ángel Navas-Martín & Ignacio Oteiza, 2021. "Behavior Patterns, Energy Consumption and Comfort during COVID-19 Lockdown Related to Home Features, Socioeconomic Factors and Energy Poverty in Madrid," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, May.
    4. Takahiro Akita & Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, 2023. "The Initial Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Regional Economies and Income Inequality in Indonesia: A Bi-dimensional Inequality Decomposition Analysis," Working Papers EMS_2023_02, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    5. Aloysius Gunadi Brata & Eusebius Pantja Pramudya & Esther Sri Astuti & Heffi Christya Rahayu & Heronimus Heron, 2021. "COVID-19 and Socio-Economic Inequalities in Indonesia: A Subnational-level Analysis," Working Papers DP-2021-04, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    6. Nakamura, Nobuyuki & Suzuki, Aya, 2021. "COVID-19 and the intentions to migrate from developing countries: Evidence from online search activities in Southeast Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Fernando de Frutos & Teresa Cuerdo-Vilches & Carmen Alonso & Fernando Martín-Consuegra & Borja Frutos & Ignacio Oteiza & Miguel Ángel Navas-Martín, 2021. "Indoor Environmental Quality and Consumption Patterns before and during the COVID-19 Lockdown in Twelve Social Dwellings in Madrid, Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-45, July.
    8. Brata, Aloysius Gunadi & Triandaru, Sigit & Patnasari, Yenny & Setyastuti, Rini & Sutarta, Agustinus Edi & Sukamto, Andreas, 2022. "The Spanish Flu Pandemic and Income Distribution in Java: Lessons from the 1920s," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 56(3), pages 103-117.
    9. Patrice Rélouendé Zidouemba & Somlanare Romuald Kinda & Idrissa Mohamed Ouedraogo, 2020. "Could Covid-19 Worsen Food Insecurity in Burkina Faso?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1379-1401, December.
    10. Takahiro Akita & Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, 2023. "The Initial Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Regional Economies in Indonesia: Structural Changes and Regional Income Inequality," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-19, September.
    11. Simionescu, Mihaela & Raišienė, Agota Giedrė, 2021. "A bridge between sentiment indicators: What does Google Trends tell us about COVID-19 pandemic and employment expectations in the EU new member states?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    12. Soltanisehat, Leili & González, Andrés D. & Barker, Kash, 2023. "Modeling social, economic, and health perspectives for optimal pandemic policy decision-making," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    13. Ouoba, Youmanli & Sawadogo, Natéwindé, 2022. "Food security, poverty and household resilience to COVID-19 in Burkina Faso: Evidence from urban small traders’ households," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:56:y:2020:i:2:p:175-192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CBIE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.