Survey of recent developments

The process for Indonesia's 2014 parliamentary and presidential elections is underway. A few discernible patterns have emerged, yet the political situation at this early stage remains fluid and both races are open. Recent events have shown, however, that Indonesian democracy itself is still relatively young and evolving, the balance of power between key institutions is still unsettled, and constitutional checks and balances are still being tested. Macroeconomic developments over the last few months have been mixed. Economic growth stayed above 6%, despite a difficult external environment, and inflation, which climbed in the first quarter, began to ease in April and May. At the same time, slower investment growth, deficits in the current and capital accounts of the balance of payments, downward pressure on the rupiah, and the risk of further increases in interest and exchange rates cast a shadow over near-term growth prospects. The recent rise in global interest rates triggered a capital outflow that contributed to a stock-market correction and placed the rupiah under new pressure. Bank Indonesia responded by raising the overnight rate, which helped to calm markets. But given relatively large non-resident holdings of Indonesian stocks and bonds and continued upward pressure on global interest rates, Indonesia's balance of payments and capital market will likely remain under strain for the foreseeable future. Policy developments were also mixed. The appointment of a technocrat as finance minister sent a reassuring signal to markets and investors. And parliament finally approved a revised budget based on more realistic assumptions and included a much delayed across-the-board increase in fuel prices, together with compensatory programs for the poor. This achievement should help boost investor confidence and generate public resources for urgent infrastructure and social-assistance programs. At the same time, however, recent measures to restrict imports of horticultural products attracted the ire of trading partners and domestic consumers, leading to their partial reversal. These measures, together with draft trade and industry laws awaiting parliamentary approval, represent a new economic nationalism that seeks to protect domestic producers against what is seen as unfair international competition The fuel-price increase, rising income inequality and an ambitious target of reducing the poverty rate to 8%--10% in 2014 -- the last year of President Yudhoyono's final term -- brings into focus the efficacy of Indonesia's social-assistance programs. It also adds fresh urgency to government efforts to improve the coverage, financing, targeting, and institutional arrangements underpinning these programs. The challenge has always been, and remains, that without central monitoring and oversight, local political pressures tend to dilute program benefits for the intended beneficiaries.