The impact of tax and price reforms on companies’ prices in a complex cigarette tax system

This study analyzes how changes in various aspects of excise tax systems, including minimum price laws and differential price tiers for excise taxation jointly rather than independently, influence firms’ pricing decisions. We apply our model to Indonesia, where the tobacco excise tax system is complex, with several excise tax tiers within and across cigarette types. We use a comprehensive database of prices over the past decade for all cigarettes manufactured and sold in Indonesia, obtained from Indonesian Customs. We find that the impact of excise taxes on prices hides important effects of other pricing policies that are typically ignored in research, which either focus on the independent impacts of excise tax or do not distinguish between cigarette types. Specifically, minimum price policies have a larger impact than excise taxes on pricing decisions for machine-made clove cigarettes (kretek), while excise tax changes have a larger effect on prices for machine-made, non-clove (white) cigarettes. For cigarette types and brands that are more likely to feature a relatively more elastic demand (hand-rolled kretek), companies keep prices close to the minimum price. The results imply that a multi-tiered tobacco excise tax system likely generates distortions that limit government policies’ effectiveness in reducing tobacco consumption.