Modelled impacts of farm-level adaptations in response to changed dietary patterns

Dietary change can facilitate a shift towards more sustainable agricultural practices and requires farmers to implement different farm adaptations. Here, we examine structural impacts on farms of several dietary scenarios towards changes in food demand pertaining to more regional food, more organic food and less meat in the metropolitan region of Vienna, Austria. We use a linear programming farm model underpinned by data on the intended adaptive behaviour of farmers based on a survey in the study region. The results show that for conventional farms, the intended adaptations from conventional to organic farming have higher effects on the investigated indicators (nitrogen import, gross margin, labour requirements) than adaptations concerning crop and livestock production patterns. A key finding is that, in terms of policy design, the positive effects on the investigated indicators can be achieved more easily by inciting switches towards organic farming than by inciting switches concerning crop and livestock production patterns. This would require dedicated policy measures at multiple levels, with payments specifically aimed at organic agriculture and other innovative, agro-ecological management practices. This article contributes to the modelling of regional-level food supply by showing that integrating empirical data into the farm model allows for a more targeted development of policy measures.