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Crude oil prices and macroeconomic activities: a structural VAR approach to Indonesia

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  • Jungho Baek

Abstract

The effects of oil price fluctuations on growth, inflation, and exchange rates for Indonesia are investigated in the framework of the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR). To identify linking oil prices to the macroeconomic activities accurately, the entire sample period is separated into two sub-samples such as the era of net oil exporter (1998:M1-2003:M12) and the era of net oil importer (2004:M1-2019:M4). In the era of net oil exporter, we discover that a surge in oil prices promotes growth and contributes to appreciating the Indonesian currency. In the era of net oil importer, by contrast, an upsurge in oil prices reduces growth and causes a depreciation of the exchange rate. However, there is little evidence that an upswing in oil prices in both eras has a significantly detrimental effect on inflation.

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  • Jungho Baek, 2021. "Crude oil prices and macroeconomic activities: a structural VAR approach to Indonesia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(22), pages 2527-2538, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:53:y:2021:i:22:p:2527-2538
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2020.1862750
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    Cited by:

    1. Mahjus Ekananda & Tulus Suryanto, 2021. "The Influence of Global Financial Liquidity on the Indonesian Economy: Dynamic Analysis with Threshold VAR," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Yang, Kun & Cheng, Zishu & Li, Mingchen & Wang, Shouyang & Wei, Yunjie, 2024. "Fortify the investment performance of crude oil market by integrating sentiment analysis and an interval-based trading strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    3. Deng, Xiang & Xu, Fang, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of international oil prices on China's PPI in different industries——Research based on NARDL model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    4. Mukhamediyev, Bulat & Temerbulatova, Zhansaya & Mukhamediyeva, Aliya, 2023. "The significance of world oil prices and macroeconomic factors for the global competitiveness of countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

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