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Cyclical behaviour of systemic risk in the banking sector

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  • Alin Marius Andrieș
  • Nicu Sprincean

Abstract

This paper examines cyclical behaviour of banks’ systemic risk contribution and exposure. Using a panel of 787 banks from country members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the European Union covering the period 2000–2017, we document that both systemic risk contribution and exposure are positively related to business cycle. Systemic risk starts to accumulate in the financial sector during periods of boom when the output gap is positive. Furthermore, during periods of robust economic growth, the level of credit tends to increase dramatically, going hand in hand with asset and property prices developments. We also find that contribution and exposure to system-wide distress move procyclically during credit and house cycles, meaning that during upturns in credit and house cycles bank interconnectedness increases, but tend to fall during the downturns. However, individual risk of the banks evolves countercyclically during business and financial cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Alin Marius Andrieș & Nicu Sprincean, 2021. "Cyclical behaviour of systemic risk in the banking sector," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(13), pages 1463-1497, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:53:y:2021:i:13:p:1463-1497
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2020.1822511
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    Cited by:

    1. He, Wenjia & He, Wenjing & Xu, Dandan & Yue, Pengpeng, 2023. "Economic volatility, banks’ risk accumulation and systemic risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Andrieş, Alin Marius & Chiper, Alexandra Maria & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu, 2024. "External wealth of nations and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Stefano Zedda & Antonella Spinace-Casale, 2021. "Modeling and Simulating Cross Country Banking Contagion Risks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-16, July.
    4. Alin Marius ANDRIEȘ & Sabina CAZAN & Nicu SPRINCEAN, 2022. "The Nexus between Bank M&As and Financial Development," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-28, April.
    5. Andries, Alin Marius & Balutel, Daniela, 2022. "The impact of national culture on systemic risk," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).

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