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Spillovers across European sovereign credit markets and role of surprise and uncertainty

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  • Stelios Bekiros
  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad
  • Rania Jammazi
  • Chaker Aloui

Abstract

We identify the network structure of spillovers and time-varying spillover intensities across European sovereign credit markets proposing a novel Copula-Granger causality based structural vector auto-regressive (SVAR) approach. Via the proposed framework, we examine the topological and time-varying spillover and contagion between 13 European credit markets, which is found to be consistent with crisis events. The heterogeneity in directional impacts could be useful in revealing contagion effects across the credit markets. We also find that newly proposed surprise and uncertainty indexes, among other macro-economic variables, significantly explain the spillover dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Stelios Bekiros & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Rania Jammazi & Chaker Aloui, 2020. "Spillovers across European sovereign credit markets and role of surprise and uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(8), pages 851-865, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:8:p:851-865
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1659930
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    Cited by:

    1. Bo Gao, 2022. "The Use of Machine Learning Combined with Data Mining Technology in Financial Risk Prevention," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(4), pages 1385-1405, April.
    2. Marta Gómez-Puig & Mary Pieterse-Bloem & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2022. ""Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in EMU sovereign debt markets"," IREA Working Papers 202217, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2022.
    3. C. Ciocirlan & M. Nițoi, 2023. "Sovereign risk connectedness: the impact of ECB’s policy announcements in Central and Eastern Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1025-1054, November.
    4. Liu, Peipei & Huang, Wei-Qiang, 2022. "Modelling international sovereign risk information spillovers: A multilayer network approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Zhizhen Chen & Guifen Shi & Boyang Sun, 2024. "Cross-border spillovers in G20 sovereign CDS markets: cluster analysis based on K-means machine learning algorithm and TVP–VAR models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(6), pages 2463-2502, December.
    6. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2022. "Credit risk interdependence in global financial markets: Evidence from three regions using multiple and partial wavelet approaches," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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