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The effects of economic policy uncertainty on China’s economy: evidence from time-varying parameter FAVAR

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  • Yinghua Ren
  • Qing Guo
  • Huiming Zhu
  • Wanming Ying

Abstract

This article explores the effects of China’s economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on its fiscal policy, monetary policy and a wide range of macro-economic variables using a time-varying parameter FAVAR model. Based on monthly data from 07/2003 to 08/2017, the time-varying structure of the model allows us to capture the time-varying characteristics of the macro-economic variables and which channel is relevant. Empirical results reveal that the reaction of monetary and fiscal policies to EPU is highly asymmetric across macro-economic circumstances. Loose monetary and fiscal policies are adopted in response to EPU shocks during the financial crisis, while policies are moderately tightened after the crisis. The China Interbank Offered Rate (Chibor) responds more sensitively and severely than M2 to EPU shocks. Additionally, EPU shocks have a significant and negative impact on economic growth, consumption, exchange rates, bonds and the stock market, but showing a positive impact on credit, real estate and fixed asset investment (which might be due to China’s special economic market environment and the high investment return). The results indicate that EPU shocks significantly affect macroeconomic fundamentals through precautionary savings and financial market channels but lose their effectiveness through a ‘real options’ effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Yinghua Ren & Qing Guo & Huiming Zhu & Wanming Ying, 2020. "The effects of economic policy uncertainty on China’s economy: evidence from time-varying parameter FAVAR," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(29), pages 3167-3185, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:29:p:3167-3185
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1707475
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Huseyin Ozdemir & Gurcan Aygun & Mark E. Wohar, 2022. "Effectiveness of monetary policy under the high and low economic uncertainty states: evidence from the major Asian economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 1741-1769, October.
    2. Whelsy Boungou & Charles Mawusi, 2022. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty on banks' non-interest income activities," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 89-97.
    3. Ömer YALÇINKAYA & Ali Kemal ÇELİK, 2021. "The Impact of Global Uncertainties on Economic Growth: Evidence from the US Economy (1996: Q1-2018: Q4)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 35-54, June.
    4. Charles Mawusi, 2021. "Economic Uncertainty and Remittances to Developing Economies: A System GMM Approach," Working Papers hal-03147813, HAL.
    5. Shi, Xing & Zhang, Ya & Wu, Yanrui & Wu, Huaqing, 2023. "Political turnover and firm innovation in China: The moderating role of innovation and entrepreneurship environment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Ogbuabor, Jonathan E. & Ukwueze, Ezebuilo R. & Mba, Ifeoma C. & Ojonta, Obed I. & Orji, Anthony, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on global retail energy markets: Are the markets responding to the fear of the unknown?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    7. Charles Mawusi & Mohamed Abdallah & Mazhar Mughal, 2022. "Does Economic Uncertainty Foster Migrant Remittances? A Macro-Perspective from 53 Developing Countries," Working Papers hal-03725386, HAL.

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