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The Indian inflation–growth relationship revisited: robust evidence from time–frequency analysis

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  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari
  • Richard O. Olayeni
  • Sodik Adejonwo Olofin
  • Tsangyao Chang

Abstract

This article re-visits the inflation–growth nexus in India using the tools of wavelet, i.e. wavelet correlation, wavelet cross-correlation and scale by scale Granger causality test. Wavelet cross-correlation analysis shows that at the shortest scales inflation and economic growth were independent; at medium scales, there exists feedback effect; and at higher scales, only economic growth is leading to inflation. Furthermore, we find: (a) high and increasing dependence between inflation and economic growth, particularly after mid-2002; (b) high-frequency components of economic growth Granger-cause low-frequency component of CPI-based inflation and vice-versa, and at all scales economic growth Granger-cause inflation at scales of 4–6 and no evidence of causality was detected from WPI-based inflation to economic growth; (c) results indicate that there is no long-run causal link between inflation and economic growth. This study presents new insights for policymakers to sustain economic development by using inflation as an economic tool in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Richard O. Olayeni & Sodik Adejonwo Olofin & Tsangyao Chang, 2019. "The Indian inflation–growth relationship revisited: robust evidence from time–frequency analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(51), pages 5559-5576, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:51:p:5559-5576
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1616065
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    Cited by:

    1. Boateng, Ebenezer & Asafo-Adjei, Emmanuel & Addison, Alex & Quaicoe, Serebour & Yusuf, Mawusi Ayisat & Abeka, Mac Junior & Adam, Anokye M., 2022. "Interconnectedness among commodities, the real sector of Ghana and external shocks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Sajjad Zaheer & Javed Iqbal, 2022. "Time-Frequency Analysis of Determinants of Inflation Rate in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 111, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.

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