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How are gold returns related to stock or bond returns in the U.S. market? Evidence from the past 10-year gold market

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  • Chung Baek

Abstract

Although the gold market over the past decade has been soaring relative to its prior history, there have been few studies on the relationship between the gold market and other major financial markets based on the past decade of data. To re-investigate how the gold market interacts with the stock market and the bond market, we re-visit economic and financial characteristics of gold using the past 10-year data in terms of co-integration, causality, predictive power, and extreme returns. We find that while gold returns are not co-integrated with stock returns and bond returns, gold returns have a unidirectional causality with both of them. Also, we discover that gold returns have some predictive power on subsequent short-term stock returns. Under extreme market scenarios, it turns out that gold returns tend to deteriorate more simultaneously with bond returns than stock returns. This means that gold can better serve as a safe haven for stock in a relative sense during temporary market downturns.

Suggested Citation

  • Chung Baek, 2019. "How are gold returns related to stock or bond returns in the U.S. market? Evidence from the past 10-year gold market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(50), pages 5490-5497, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:50:p:5490-5497
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1616062
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    Cited by:

    1. Mensi, Walid & Shafiullah, Muhammad & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Volatility spillovers between strategic commodity futures and stock markets and portfolio implications: Evidence from developed and emerging economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Thampanya, Natthinee & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc, 2020. "Asymmetric correlation and hedging effectiveness of gold & cryptocurrencies: From pre-industrial to the 4th industrial revolutionāœ°," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Maghyereh, Aktham & Awartani, Basel & Virk, Nader S., 2022. "Asymmetric risk transmissions between oil, gold and US equities: Recent evidence from the realized variance of the futures prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Yun Shi & Lin Yang & Mei Huang & Jun Steed Huang, 2021. "Multi-Factorized Semi-Covariance of Stock Markets and Gold Price," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-11, April.
    5. Chung Baek & Thomas Jackman, 2021. "Safe-haven assets for U.S. equities during the 2020 COVID-19 bear market," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 331-335.

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