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The effects of climatic variation on rice production in Sri Lanka

Author

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  • Shyama Ratnasiri
  • Ranjika Walisinghe
  • Nicholas Rohde
  • Ross Guest

Abstract

We study the responsiveness of rice production to climatic variation using a recent pseudo-panel data set from Sri Lanka. Output per farm is modelled as a non-linear function of temperature and rainfall (and other standard controls) using fixed effects regressions. We find that both climatic variables have concave, non-monotonic effects upon production, and that output is close to maximized at current climatic values. This implies that variations in growing conditions are likely to have negative effects upon production. Random simulations are used to model these impacts under various climate change scenarios, and we find that increasing temperatures will adversely affect rice production much more than varying rainfall, although the effects of a small ceteris paribus rise in temperature are positive. As rice production is a key component in economic output for Sri Lanka and other developing countries, our results have implications for food policy and poverty management in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Shyama Ratnasiri & Ranjika Walisinghe & Nicholas Rohde & Ross Guest, 2019. "The effects of climatic variation on rice production in Sri Lanka," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(43), pages 4700-4710, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:43:p:4700-4710
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1597253
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    Cited by:

    1. María Lucía Martínez Martínez, 2021. "Efectos de precipitaciones en precios de la leche usando modelos con umbrales según la estructura del mercado," Documentos Departamento de Economía 20752, Universidad del Norte.
    2. Takeshima, Hiroyuki & Kishore, Avinash & Kumar, Anjani, 2024. "Climate shocks and fertilizer responses: Field-level evidence for rice production in Bangladesh," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344280, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).
    3. Jean Galbert, ONGONO OLINGA, 2023. "Agricultural Productivity and Climate Change: An Evidence of a non-linear Relationship in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 117669, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mahinda Senevi Gunaratne & R. B. Radin Firdaus & Shamila Indika Rathnasooriya, 2021. "Climate change and food security in Sri Lanka: towards food sovereignty," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Francisco Fontes & Ashley Gorst & Charles Palmer, 2021. "Threshold effects of extreme weather events on cereal yields in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-20, March.

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