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Are Islamic bonds a good safe haven for stocks? Implications for portfolio management in a time-varying regime-switching copula framework

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  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad
  • Chaker Aloui
  • Rania Jammazi
  • Muhammad Shahbaz

Abstract

We examine the portfolio implications of adding the Islamic bond index (Sukuk) to a benchmark portfolio of Islamic stocks. The daily data of the Islamic bond index; the Islamic stock markets of the world, Canada, Japan, USA, UK and Islamic financial stocks are used for the period of 1 October 2005 through 30 April 2015. We examine the presence of structural breaks via the Iterated Cumulative Sum of Square (ICSS) algorithm, which clearly indicate that Islamic stock-bond returns have several structural breaks over the sample period; hence, the dependence among the markets may have a regime-switching pattern. We rely on the flexible properties of the ARMA-FIGARCH models with the skew-t distribution to model the marginal distributions of the series. Next, a set of static, time-varying and regime-switching time-varying copula models are applied to encircle the dependence dynamics. Finally, using different portfolio strategies, we access the portfolio implications of a multi-asset portfolio. Overall, the results provide evidence that the Islamic bond index can be included as a potential hedge/safe haven in benchmark stock portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Chaker Aloui & Rania Jammazi & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2019. "Are Islamic bonds a good safe haven for stocks? Implications for portfolio management in a time-varying regime-switching copula framework," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 219-238, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:3:p:219-238
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1494376
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    Cited by:

    1. Balli, Faruk & Billah, Mabruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & De Bruin, Anne, 2022. "Spillovers between Sukuks and Shariah-compliant equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Husain, Afzol & Karim, Sitara & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2024. "Financial fusion: Bridging Islamic and Green investments in the European stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Hernandez, Jose Arreola & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Characteristics of spillovers between the US stock market and precious metals and oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Karim, Sitara & Lucey, Brian M. & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Vigne, Samuel A., 2023. "The dark side of Bitcoin: Do Emerging Asian Islamic markets help subdue the ethical risk?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Billah, Mabruk & Alam, Md Rafayet & Hoque, Mohammad Enamul, 2024. "Global uncertainty and the spillover of tail risk between green and Islamic markets: A time-frequency domain approach with portfolio implications," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1416-1433.
    6. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Qureshi, Fiza & Arif, Muhammad & Balli, Faruk, 2021. "Asymmetric relationship between gold and Islamic stocks in bearish, normal and bullish market conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2020. "The linkages between oil market uncertainty and Islamic stock markets: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    8. Ahmet Akca & Ethem Çanakoğlu, 2021. "Adaptive stochastic risk estimation of firm operating profit," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 48(3), pages 463-504, September.
    9. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Safe haven properties of green, Islamic, and crypto assets and investor's proclivity towards treasury and gold," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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