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The preliminary effectiveness of bilateral trade in China’s belt and road initiatives: a structural break approach

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  • Chen-Yu Li
  • An-Chi Lai
  • Zhan-Ao Wang
  • Yi-Chung Hsu

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the initial effectiveness of the international trade in the Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI), which encompasses 64 countries along the Belt and Road as part of China’s political and economic network for the years beginning with 2013. To determine the initial effectiveness in the international trade associated with the BRI, we adopt the traditional augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the one-time structural breakpoint in the bilateral trade data between China and these 64 countries along the Belt and Road from 2010 to 2017. The results show that, for 46 (72%) countries, the trade flows with unit roots and the shocks of trade flows appear to occur more frequently following the announcements of the initiatives among these countries. As for the remaining countries, the trade flows exhibit stationary time series over the 2010–2017 period. Both the 21st century maritime silk road and the silk road economic belt initiatives have affected the bilateral trade volumes of these countries along with the belt and road initiatives, and bilateral commerce mechanisms are able to serve as a stabilizing force in accelerating the economic integration of countries along the route.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen-Yu Li & An-Chi Lai & Zhan-Ao Wang & Yi-Chung Hsu, 2019. "The preliminary effectiveness of bilateral trade in China’s belt and road initiatives: a structural break approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(35), pages 3890-3905, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:35:p:3890-3905
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1584387
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    Cited by:

    1. Lu, Shuai & Chen, Ning & Zhou, Wei & Li, Shouwei, 2024. "Impact of the belt and road initiative on trade status and FDI attraction: A local and global network perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1468-1495.
    2. Jianhong Qi & Kam Ki Tang & Da Yin & Yong Zhao, 2020. "Remaking China’s Global Image with the Belt and Road Initiative: Is the Jury Out?," Discussion Papers Series 635, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    3. Peizhu Xin & Min Zhao & Yang Bai, 2022. "Does the Belt and Road Initiative Promote Green Innovation Quality? Evidence from Chinese Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-19, May.
    4. Holger Görg & Haiou Mao, 2022. "Does the belt and road initiative stimulate Chinese exports? Evidence from micro data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(7), pages 2084-2100, July.
    5. Görg, Holger & Mao, Haiou, 2020. "Does the belt and road initiative stimulate chinese exports? The role of state-owned enterprises," KCG Working Papers 21, Kiel Centre for Globalization (KCG).
    6. Wang, Hui & Si, Ieongcheng & Chen, Zhihua, 2024. "Does the Belt and Road Initiative promote China and the countries along the route to reconstruct the global value chain? Evidence from value-added trade," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 63-83.
    7. Bayarmaa Ganbaatar & Juan Huang & Chuanmin Shuai & Asad Nawaz & Madad Ali, 2021. "Empirical Analysis of Factors Affecting the Bilateral Trade between Mongolia and China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-17, April.

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